48 seats: Opposition bloc falls short of Knesset speaker swap target

The opposition coalition in Israel lacks the necessary votes to replace the Knesset speaker before a new government is formed. Yaakov Asher, chair of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism (UTJ) party, rejected a request from Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party to join a vote against the current speaker. This refusal prevents the opposition from seizing control of the legislative agenda during the interim period.

Eisenkot’s bloc currently controls 48 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. A majority of 61 is required to pass legislation or elect a new speaker. UTJ holds seven seats and Shas, another ultra-Orthodox party, holds six. The two Arab-led parties hold 19 seats between them and have pledged to back a speaker replacement. Without UTJ’s support, the opposition remains short of the required threshold to force a vote on Tuesday.

Amir Ohana, the current speaker from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, stated he would schedule a vote if a majority of the Knesset requested one. Ohana’s removal would allow opposition parties to advance measures previously blocked by Netanyahu. These include a state commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led massacre and a bill imposing term limits on prime ministers. The speaker controls the legislative agenda and works with deputies to set the parliamentary schedule.

Asher wrote to incoming Yashar lawmaker Roy Folkman on Monday to explain the decision. "The fundamental position of the United Torah Judaism faction is that the Knesset speaker should be replaced alongside the formation of a new government, and not when the Knesset convenes," Asher wrote. He argued that an immediate change could create a conflict between the speaker and the eventual government. UTJ has reportedly considered supporting an Eisenkot-led administration due to friction with Netanyahu over military draft exemptions for yeshiva students.

Eisenkot received the formal mandate to assemble a government on Monday. His bloc is 13 seats short of a majority. Avigdor Liberman, chairman of Yisrael Beytenu, met with Eisenkot on Monday and urged the bloc to negotiate with ultra-Orthodox parties. Yashar described the meeting as a "constructive and productive discussion." Both leaders expressed confidence in forming a stable government for a four-year term, though specific disagreements remain unresolved.

Liberman has ruled out relying on a minority government supported by Arab-led parties. He has signaled openness to the Haredi factions. Eisenkot campaigned on universal military service, a policy opposed by ultra-Orthodox parties. Members of the opposition B'Yachad party insist on a universal service law. Incoming MK Yonatan Shalev told the Ynet outlet that the party "will do everything to bring about a [military] service revolution." Fellow B'Yachad MK Keren Terner Eyal said military service must be the top priority.

Folkman is expected to chair the Knesset Arrangements Committee after the swearing-in on Tuesday. This temporary panel manages the Knesset’s work until a government is formed. It can create special committees to advance legislation. Folkman’s tenure may be brief if Eisenkot fails to form a coalition within the six-week deadline. Folkman, 51, first entered the Knesset in 2015 and co-founded the Jerusalem-based Hitorerut movement.

Netanyahu released a video statement after the Eisenkot-Liberman meeting. He called for a unity government under his leadership that includes Haredi parties. "I don't rule anyone out, and no one else should be ruling others out," Netanyahu said. He argued that Likud, with 27 seats, should lead the coalition. He also stated that it is impossible to fight Iran while depending on radical Islam in the government, despite Yashar’s 21 seats forming the anchor of a larger supporting bloc.