Israel's Election Results Leave Leaders Without a Clear Path to Power
With 85% of votes counted, neither side has a majority, forcing parties to choose between breaking pledges or holding another vote.
By Matthew Qureshi ·
Israel appears stuck in a political deadlock following Tuesday's election.
With 85% of the ballots tallied, neither the coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the bloc supporting challenger Gadi Eisenkot has secured a majority. This mathematical impasse means one of the leading groups must abandon key campaign promises to form a government, making a repeat vote the most likely outcome.
One potential solution is a national unity government led by Netanyahu. This arrangement would require Eisenkot to abandon his central promise to remove Netanyahu from office. Eisenkot addressed his supporters at his campaign headquarters late Tuesday, urging the prime minister to announce his retirement from political life immediately. He criticized Netanyahu's culture of lies, division, and incitement. However, that speech occurred before an exit poll was revised. The initial report suggested Eisenkot's bloc was ahead, but the updated data showed Netanyahu overtaking him. Netanyahu, speaking at Likud headquarters, thanked his loyal partners and called for a strong right-wing government, a remark many interpret as a signal that he intends to keep his current ultra-Orthodox and far-right allies.
A renewed conflict with Iran could make a unity deal more attractive. In the days before the election, media reports indicated that Netanyahu was pushing for fresh strikes on Iran and had asked President Donald Trump to approve US involvement. Critics argue this strategy is designed to save Netanyahu's political position by triggering regional tension. If war breaks out, party leaders may feel pressured to set aside their differences.
Another option is a coalition led by Eisenkot that includes Arab parties. This would mark a major shift in Israeli politics, as only one independent Arab party has formally joined a government before, in 2021, and it lasted a short time. Eisenkot and most Jewish parties in his bloc have ruled out such an alliance, but it is currently the only path to a majority for the opposition. Arab parties defied expectations on election night, with turnout among Israel's Arab population, roughly one-fifth of the country, reaching record levels. The United Arab List is projected to win about seven seats, while The Joint List is projected to win 12. The United Arab List has said it would join an opposition government, while The Joint List would support one from outside. Yair Golan of The Democrats is the only Jewish leader currently advocating for this scenario, though such a coalition would be fragile on issues like Gaza and the West Bank.
Netanyahu could also try to build a majority by recruiting right-wing parties from the opposition. Naftali Bennett of the Beyachad alliance and Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu are the most likely candidates. Both are security hawks who share some ground with Netanyahu, but both campaigned to remove him and extend military conscription to the ultra-Orthodox. This puts them in direct conflict with the ultra-Orthodox parties already in Netanyahu's coalition. Some analysts suggest Bennett and Lieberman's parties could replace the ultra-Orthodox groups, but current electoral math indicates this grouping may not have enough seats for a majority.
If negotiations fail, Israel will hold new elections. This outcome would likely benefit Netanyahu, who would remain caretaker prime minister until the next vote. Analysts suggest the high Arab turnout may not be replicated, especially if their record representation leads to no change in government. A second vote could also mobilize more right-wing voters. Additionally, an estimated 70,000 Israelis who flew home from abroad to vote, a group thought to lean against Netanyahu, may not do so again. Several right-wing parties that missed the 3.25% electoral threshold might also see their vote shares drop or fail to run entirely, potentially channeling more support to Likud and its allies. Between 2019 and 2022, Israel held five separate elections as leaders struggled to form a stable government.
