Split Israeli Election: Netanyahu, Bennett Claim Wins Based on Different Majorities

Isrealis cast ballots on Tuesday, but the resulting parliamentary arithmetic left both major political blocs claiming victory based on different definitions of a majority.

With no single bloc holding a clear majority in the Knesset, leaders selected specific segments of the electorate to declare their wins. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu focused on support for the Jewish state. In an election-night speech, he stated that Likud is the largest party and that the right-wing bloc holds a decisive majority among the Zionist and Jewish publics. This calculation includes haredi parties like Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as Jewish parties from the opposition bloc. It explicitly excludes Arab parties, even though the haredi partners often resist military conscription.

Naftali Bennett used a different metric. He declared that the alliance of those who serve defeated the alliance of draft evaders. Bennett pledged to form a Zionist government based on shared defense burdens. Under his framework, haredi parties fall on the losing side, whereas they count toward Netanyahu’s majority. Gadi Eisenkot echoed this view, citing a larger Zionist majority that demands equal conscription.

Avigdor Liberman took a distinct approach. He did not claim victory among a specific demographic. Instead, he appealed to Zionist tradition, urging followers of Trumpeldor, Jabotinsky, and Herzl to raise a banner of revolt within Likud. Liberman sought to separate Likud voters' loyalty to the party from their loyalty to the prime minister.

Yair Golan adopted the broadest definition. He invoked the Israeli democratic majority and included Arab parties in his count. By Wednesday morning, he had detailed the arithmetic, arguing that Arab votes carry the same weight as Jewish votes. Golan stated that Arab voters need not pass extra tests for their votes to count, placing him in direct contrast to Netanyahu’s exclusionary math.

The open question is whether these competing definitions can be converted into a working government. Each leader’s victory claim rests on a different subset of the electorate, leaving the coalition-building process dependent on which definition prevails in negotiations.