Iran Negotiations: Vance Cites Progress as War Nears One Year

The U.S. conflict with Iran has cost American taxpayers at least $47 billion so far. Vice President JD Vance pointed to that figure on Monday while suggesting a diplomatic off-ramp may finally be within reach. He told reporters that the administration feels "pretty good" about the prospects for a negotiated settlement.

Vance disclosed that he spoke directly with President Donald Trump about the situation roughly one hour before addressing the press. The two leaders are working to prevent a resumption of full-scale operations, a threat Trump has repeatedly dangled since the conflict began eight months ago. The White House has released few details about the diplomatic channels currently active, but Vance confirmed a letter was sent last week to Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei.

Trump described that correspondence to reporters as focusing on assisting Iran with medical supplies and other goods. Rezaei acknowledged receiving the letter but has not yet replied. He told state television that the tone from Washington has changed completely, calling it a very good sign. He did not specify what changes he observed or how they relate to the pending negotiations.

Diplomatic efforts are proceeding in parallel with military pressure. Two regional officials said Qatari mediators held two rounds of talks with Iranian officials last week. The mediators are attempting to advance a framework in which Iran ceases attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. More talks are scheduled for this week.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is urging a different path. Two officials familiar with the matter said Netanyahu pushed Trump for a new wave of strikes during a weekend phone call. Netanyahu hopes to form an emergency government after his coalition lost its parliamentary majority in last week’s Israeli elections. A return to full-scale war could bolster his security credentials. Trump has not committed to military action and appears to be weighing the options.

Other Middle Eastern allies are warning against escalation. One official noted that new strikes could destabilize the region, potentially prompting Iran-allied Houthi rebels in Yemen to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and Red Sea shipping. Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Monday about these regional developments and the Houthi threats.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday as signs of diplomatic headway emerged. Trump noted the drop in a speech in Washington, where he characterized the conflict as limited because the U.S. has not engaged in active fighting for months. Iranian officials maintain they are prepared for war or diplomacy. The new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, recently met with military chiefs and urged an immediate response to any threat without geographic limits. He has not appeared publicly since the opening strikes on Feb. 28 killed his father.