Polls Show Democrats Ahead as Midterms Approach
RealClearPolitics averages give Democrats a 51.5 percent national lead, but six tight Senate races could determine control of the upper chamber.
By Rebecca Foster ·
Democrats hold a 51.5 percent lead over Republicans at 43.1 percent in the latest RealClearPolitics average with two days remaining until the United States midterm elections. The national margin appears stable, yet control of the Senate hinges on a handful of contested states where margins are within error.
A THP/MM survey conducted October 28 and 29 showed Democrats ahead by 13 points, while an Emerson College poll from October 24 to 26 indicated a 10 point Democratic lead. Natalie Jackson, a political analyst, attributed the gap to public dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump and the economy. She noted that Americans feel the impact of high costs driven by tariffs and the US-Israel war on Iran.
In Kansas, the Washington Post-Schar School poll released Friday gave Democrat Adam Hamilton a 9 point lead over Senator Roger Marshall. An Emerson College survey, however, showed the race as tighter, with Hamilton leading by 3 points. Doug Heye, a Republican strategist, questioned the accuracy of the wider margin, citing a 2024 Iowa poll error as precedent. He argued that some Republican voters may not answer poll calls, potentially underestimating their party's support.
President Trump scheduled rallies in Iowa and Kansas for Sunday after reversing a decision to cancel them. He will campaign alongside Representative Ashley in Iowa and Senator Marshall in Kansas. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, but rising farming costs and opposition to immigration policies have made the current race competitive.
In Michigan, Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is holding events in Detroit and Southfield. Celinda Lake, a strategist for El-Sayed's campaign, said the race depends heavily on voter turnout. She noted that Democrats face negative perceptions compared to 2018 but are focusing on affordability and healthcare.
More than 51 million Americans have already voted. Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to secure majorities in both chambers. Jackson stated that while the House outcome appears likely for Democrats, the Senate picture remains unclear due to individual state dynamics.
Polling stations close on Tuesday evening, with initial results expected shortly after. Heye said he would watch Indiana and Kentucky first, as those states report early. Jackson cautioned that polling errors in individual Senate races could shift outcomes in either direction.
