Ford Q3 results hinge on F-150 supply drop

F-150 production at Ford Motor dropped below 43,000 units in September, a sharp decline from the more than 57,500 trucks built in August. The company is set to release third-quarter financial results after the market close on Wednesday, October 28.

The drop in output follows a separate supplier issue that disrupted manufacturing at the end of last month. Ford has described the problem as distinct from earlier supply chain challenges that affected the company throughout 2025. Management stated the recent disruption is "containable within" its existing guidance for 2026 adjusted earnings.

Investors are looking for confirmation that the automaker will maintain its full-year financial outlook. Ford currently projects adjusted earnings before interest and taxes between $10 billion and $11 billion for 2026. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow to land in the range of $6 billion to $7 billion.

Wall Street consensus, based on LSEG data, anticipates adjusted earnings per share of 40 cents and automotive revenue of $46.24 billion for the third quarter. These figures would represent an 11 percent decline in earnings per share and a 2 percent drop in revenue compared to the same period in 2025.

In the third quarter of 2025, Ford reported automotive revenue of $47.19 billion, net income of $2.4 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of 45 cents. Analysts remain divided on the precise impact the F-150 production halt will have on this quarter's bottom line.

Watchers of the report will also examine warranty costs for any unexpected shifts. The company’s ability to hold steady on its 2026 targets will serve as the primary indicator of how well it is managing the current production bottleneck.