Data Center Boom To Spike US Power Emissions

The US power sector is projected to emit 42 percent more carbon dioxide by 2030 than it did in 2025, according to an analysis released by the Sierra Club on Wednesday. The increase stems from the construction of new fossil fuel infrastructure designed to meet the rising electricity needs of data centers.

The report estimates that electricity generation will add 618 million tons of carbon dioxide pollution by the end of the decade if current AI projects proceed as planned. That volume is equivalent to the annual electricity use of 128,788,523 homes. If realized, this increase would erase 15 years of greenhouse gas reductions in the sector.

This projection exceeds earlier forecasts. A study published by academic researchers in June estimated a 28 percent rise in power sector emissions by 2030, assuming data center and crypto mining growth. The Sierra Club’s higher figure accounts for the current scale of planned construction.

US net greenhouse gas emissions fell from a peak of 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to 5.35 billion metric tons in 2025. However, pollution levels began rising last year as data center demand increased. The trend coincides with federal actions to expand fossil fuel capacity while reducing pollution regulations and pausing renewable energy projects.

A separate report from the Environmental Defense Fund published this month confirms the construction trend. The US is currently planning to build more fossil fuel capacity than at any point in the past decade. The final impact on emissions will depend on which planned data center projects are completed and the specific energy sources used to power them.