2-3 Point Edge: Researchers Link Florida Ballot Order to GOP Wins
Stanford political scientist Jon Krosnick argues the primacy effect has aided Republican candidates in recent close Florida elections.
By Aiko Brooks ·
Florida voters will see Republican candidates listed before Democrats on their November general election ballots, a placement that political scientists argue provides a measurable advantage to the GOP. A Stanford University political scientist estimates this position bias can add two to three percentage points to a Republican candidate's total in close races.
The state law governing this order dates to 1951. At that time, Democrats controlled the state government, and the Legislature passed a bill requiring the top position on the ballot to go to the party that won the previous governor's race. Although Democrats dominated Florida politics for decades, the party in power shifted. Since Republican Ron DeSantis won reelection in 2022, the GOP has held the primary spot. This ordering has actually remained in place for over a quarter century, following wins by Charlie Crist, Jeb Bush, and Rick Scott.
Democrats have challenged the rule in court. In 2018, several national Democratic organizations joined state voters in suing to change the provision. Their lawsuit claimed the arrangement created an unfair and artificial electoral advantage for the governing party. The National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican Governors Association defended the state, arguing the statute imposed only minimal burdens on constitutional rights.
U.S. District Judge Mark Walker initially ruled in favor of the Democrats. However, a federal appeals court overturned that decision in 2020. The higher court dismissed the case, stating the plaintiffs lacked legal standing and that the issue involved political questions beyond judicial authority. Florida is one of at least a dozen states that determine ballot order by political party, according to a 2025 analysis by the National Conference of State Legislatures. Other states use alphabetical order, random drawings, or rotating names.
The scientific basis for the advantage lies in the primacy effect. Jon Krosnick, a Stanford professor and expert witness in the Florida case, explains that people tend to select the first acceptable option when making choices. He compares this to beer tasting, where the first beer sampled often gains an edge due to a lack of information and voter ambivalence. Krosnick notes the effect can weaken in high-profile races but may strengthen if negative campaigning increases voter uncertainty.
Darren Grant, an economics professor at Sam Houston State University, has also studied ballot placement. He found the effect is particularly pronounced in down-ballot races. Grant points to Florida's recent gubernatorial elections as evidence. Charlie Crist, a Republican, won in 2006, which set the GOP first for the 2010 race. Rick Scott won that election by approximately 1.2%. Scott won reelection in 2014 by just over a percentage point. Ron DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum in 2018 by 0.4%.
Grant argues that Crist's 2006 victory triggered a chain of events that helped secure Republican wins for the next twelve years. He calls this sequence a hat trick. Grant emphasizes the value of the boost in tightly contested general elections. He stated that candidates often spend millions of dollars on advertising to gain a one or two percentage point bump, a margin that the ballot order may provide automatically.
The Florida Supreme Court has not yet weighed in on the current ballot order for the 2026 cycle. The state's election officials have prepared ballots placing Republican candidates in the first position on all statewide races. Voters will cast their ballots on November 3, 2026.
